Isn't it just that he left way before gpt-5, then? At that point a sufficiently naive person could have believed that scaling was going to lead to AGI, but that sort of optimism died after he was already an outsider.
Kokotajlo still believes we get AGI in the next few years. These are his most updated numbers at the moment: https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/
Kokotajlo still believes we get AGI in the next few years. These are his most updated numbers at the moment: https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/