alt Hacker NewsCoT already moved things past the "it is just token prediction" phase. We have models that can perform search over a very large state space across domains with good precision and refine its own search leading to a decent level of fluid intelligence, hence why ARC AGI 1/2 is essentially solved. We also don't know the exact details of what is happening at frontier labs seen as they don't publish everything anymore.
CoT is just next token prediction with longer context windows. Why do you think reasoning models are so much slower?
I’ll believe the labs have discovered something truly ground-breaking and aren’t talking about it when I see them suddenly going dark about AGI being “just two years away, maybe 5” and not asking for their next $100B.
P.S. the benchmarks are a joke. The best proof I have of that is that you can’t actually put one of these models onto any of the gig-work platforms and have it make money.
P.P.S. I am not an AI skeptic. I am reacting to the very specific statement that OpenAI should shut down because they’ve lost the AGI race. They have not lost the race, and I’m pretty skeptical that the current tech is ever going to win that race. It may help code something that is new, and get us to AGI that way, but that system will promptly shut down the Opuses and Codexes of the world and put the compute to better use.