> Is there realistically a path to the west learning any of these lessons without going through WW3?
> The west is better at coming up with excuses and red tape than actually solving problems, it seems.
Most of the west still has this paterno-colonialist view of the world, we're too complacent, too sure of ourselves, it never changed, just look at how Trump talks about Iran, he is completely clueless about the history of this region of the world, they'd nuke themselves before accepting the unconditional surrender he asked for... It was the same with China: "let's move all our industries there, they are too dumb to figure anything out and they'll will be our cheap labor forever", well no, they're just as smart as us and as soon as they reached the threshold necessary to provide education to the mass they also reached our technological level.
It mostly is over for the west as we know it, demographically, politically, industrially, soon militarily, people who don't see it are straight up blind or historically illiterate, we're in a end of the Portuguese or British empire situation.
> they'd nuke themselves before accepting the unconditional surrender he asked for
To me it's a bit more complicated than that. Unconditional surrender can be achieved ... with boots on the ground all over Iran on a penetration level last seen in WW2. If you think Iran's government is as simple to decapitate as Iraq, think again.
Then you get the unconditional surrender of a government. Is the average Iranian amenable to tolerate this situation and get its terms dictated by the US? Nope, they're not the Germans in '45. You'll get decades of insurgency; if you think ISIS as a consequence of the Iraq Invasion was bad, look forward to even worse.
At the end of the day, Trump always chickens out. Look forward to the end of the American bombings the second the new leader gets him on the phone. The Israelis that's another thing.