The NFT/web3 comparison is tempting but I think it misses something. NFTs had no underlying utility beyond speculation. AI is already generating real revenue for companies that figured out the execution layer. The bubble isn't in the technology, it's in the gap between what gets announced and what actually gets deployed.

The circular investment thing is real though. Half the "AI investments" are just cloud compute commitments rebranded as strategic AI spending. That part is absolutely going to unwind.