alt Hacker NewsI wrote a short bit on a similar topic the other day[^a]. Just because something is faster or even measurably better, that doesn't translate to end productivity.
1. You might be speeding up something that is inherently not productive (the "faster horses" trope). I see companies using AI to generate performance reviews. Same company using AI to summarize all the new performance stuff they're getting. All that's happening is amplified busywork (there is real work in there, but questionable if it's improved).
2. Some things are zero sum. If you're not using AI for marketing you might fall behind. So you adopt these tools, but attention/etc are limited. There is no net gain, just competition.
3. You might speed one part up (typing code), but then other parts of your pipeline quickly become constraints. It might be a long time before we're able to adapt the end-to-end process. This is amplified by coding tools being three strides ahead.
4. Then there are actual productivity improvements. One of these PRs could have been "translate this to German". That could be one PR but a whole step-change for the business.
So much of what is happening falls in buckets 1+2+3. I don't think we've really got into the meat of 4 yet.