> I guess the recent move in urea likely isn’t coming from energy costs, something fertilizer-specific, exports, shipping, or supply

One of India's SOEs recently paused Urea production at some plants due to NatGas issues from the ongoing conflict [0].

Additonally, India began reducing purchasing of Russian LNG in late 2025.

India also launched a tender to purchase urea on the global market in February [1].

This led to a double whammy for urea in the short term given how Indian agriculture is heavily Urea dependent (around 70-80% of all fertilizers used in India are Urea).

But the same SOE recently announced it's restarted operations earlier today [2] and India has restarted spot purchases of what appears to be Russian LNG [3][4] that was originally destined for Europe (especially Hungary and Slovakia).

Edit: can't reply

I'm not a god damn LLM and I do not use AI to write my comments. If you can't engage with an argument, then fuck off.

[0] - https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/gas-shortage-halts-...

[1] - https://www.rfdtv.com/india-urea-tender-tightens-global-fert...

[2] - https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/bathinda/nfl-bathinda-plan...

[3] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-securing-addit...

[4] - https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/116517/