I think it's possible we could get to something like %30. I imagine that AI is being overused by a lot of devs in places where it has a marginal or even negative impact of productivity. It's easy to remember your "WOW!" moments when it does something quickly and flawlessly, but I think we tend to forget the times when it struggles or when you outright have to throw it away and start over.

So even just learning how to use it better (or less side-eying the AI boosters) will lead to improvements. I'm not sure how much of a difference incremental improvements on the models or harnesses will make.

Of course this is also skewed by what type of work you do - textbook stuff that's well inside the distribution will have more tasks that can be accomplished with AI tools than stuff that is less well represented in the training data. It's not a mystery why the majority of my AI usage is with HTML and CSS.