I think I'm coming to the same conclusion Gpt-3 to 5.3 have had real tangible but incremental improvements with quite diminishing returns.

Perhaps we won't see a phase change like improvement as we did from gpt-2 through to 3 until there is several more orders of magnitude parameters and/or training. Perhaps we will never see it again!

What is getting rapidly better is scaffolding but this seems to be more about understanding and building tools around LLMs than the LLMs themselves improving.

I'm still excited about AI but not constantly hyped to the rafters as some.