You really can't model these 5 data points with a linear regression or a step function. The models are of different sizes / use cases, and from two different labs. I feel like what we've observed generally is that different labs releasing similarly sized models at similar times are generally pretty similar.

I think the only reasonable thing to read into is Sonnet 3.5 -> 3.7 -> 4.5. But yeah, you just can't draw a line through this thing.

I will die on the hill that LLMs are getting better, particularly Anthropic's releases since December. But I can't point at a graph to prove that, I'm just drawing on my personal experience. I do use Claude Code though, so I think a large part of the improvement comes from the harness.