KSA can get most of their oil to the Red Sea in 2-3 years (like 90%+). By the end of the year, they should be able to get >50% there.

UAE can get ~30% through Oman now, and probably ~75% in 3-4 years.

Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are screwed without the straight. Qatar could probably work a deal with KSA to get all of their oil through its pipes to the Red Sea if need be in 2-3 years, but they'd pay a premium.

If I had to guess, I think this will structurally push KSA and UAE to move out of the straight, and for anyone in the straight to be tied to China and India.

I imagine Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Iran are all going to become Chinese and Indian client states.

North & South America now have a major oil & natural gas surplus. Their total usage is declining and production is increasing.

Meanwhile, the EU, Japan, SK, etc are moving towards renewables & nuclear as fast as they can.

China's probably reached peak fossil fuel imports already.

US Naval power has been drastically hollowed out - other than for strategic force projection for low intensity conflicts involving air strikes. Even for that, it's a shadow of what it once was.

This isn't the 1980's where we can surge 100 warships to an area of the world to deny the area or perform escort missions.

If we decided to 10x the Navy budget today and start building ships we'd be a couple decades out since we'd have to start from "train the ship building workforce" first principles to begin with.

Other than air power, the US has been operating off military (reputation) inertia for decades now.

It’s not fear, it’s cost-benefit, and it would take all the trucks in the middle east to move a tiny portion of the export that typically goes via ship. It would be easier and more aligned for Qatar, UAE, Saudis to pay mercs to keep the strait clear.

The problem is not the road.

It is prohibitely expensive to move things using trailers vs. freight.