Your point is valid in many ways. The picture can be a little brighter. The PhD path does not have to be an all or nothing.

1. You can hedge your bets by submitting your work to various conferences of various qualities (without going 3rd-tier, you can bet across 1st-tier and 2nd-tier)

2. You can spend time choosing the professor and the topic before going all in

3. You can seek advice and social interactions within your research group, departement and school

None of this is a silver bullet, but it compounds in the right direction.