The issue is that this isn't really supply constrained inflation. This is price discovery and discrimination by major retailers. The amount of coupons, conditional sale prices, and member savings has skyrocketed. I have paid rather intense attention to the price of groceries since 2015 when I started purchasing for my business kitchen as we started providing prepared meals. In general, prices are very close to 2015 levels for the important goods.
I have some basic guidelines for an acceptable range that are from when I started in 2015.
Milk: $2.50 / g Frozen Fruit $2/ lb Cheese $3 / lb Wheat $3 / 5lb Oats $3 / 40 40 oz Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast $2 / lb
These are all prices that I am still able to routinely meet or exceed in 2026.
Beef is an outlier though. $20-$30/lb for supermarket quality is quite a lot.
The amount of coupons, conditional sale prices, and member savings has skyrocketed.
This is a Bad Thing. Sure when I do grocery shopping I keep an eye out for bargains, but I also don't want to have my buying choices overly shaped by the retailer so I end up spending money on stuff I don't really want. I especially don't want to deal with coupons and buy-this-get-that offers. Planning out what to eat and remembering to get what I need is enough mental effort without having to spend time on discountmaxxing which is really just another kind of advertising.
acceptable range [...] Cheese $3 / lb
I don't know what kind of cheese you're getting for $3/lb but I'm pretty sure it isn't good for you.