logoalt Hacker News

dbspin • yesterday at 3:50 PM • 2 replies • view on HN

They may have dropped from the level of death during the war itself. A transnational conflict that involved every continent on earth. But I'd be shocked if the numbers dead from war in the post war period did not exceed the median number of civilian victims of war pre-WW1 or in the post war period. The World Wars normalised the idea of total war, of death squads and killing fields and mechanised genocide. Those have continued apace, everywhere from the Congo to Cambodia. At the time they were novelties in 'the civilised' world.

Replies

brabel • yesterday at 4:17 PM

I asked ChatGPT to compute the rate of total deaths (civilians + military) since the end of the Napoleonic Wars.

Here's what it came up with:

    Period.     Approx average deaths from war
    1815–1913 ~5–15 per 100k per year
    1914–1945 ~100–200 per 100k per year
    1946–1989 ~5–10 per 100k per year
    1990–today ~1–3 per 100k per year
I know AI is not 100% reliable but it searched on many sources to compute that. I checked some of them and the conclusion is in line with them.

Here's the "bottomline":

> Since the end of the Napoleonic Wars, the per-capita death rate from war has fallen substantially, with the huge exception of the 1914–1945 world-war era, which produced the highest war mortality rates in modern history.

TBH this surprised me. I thought that with much better killing machines in the 20th century, we'd be more efficient at killing, and as we're still having wars as usual that would mean death rates would increase... but it seems I was quite wrong.

nradov • yesterday at 6:46 PM

Alas we're seeing a reversion to historical norms. The "civilized" world was a temporary and localized phenomenon. The usual pattern in conflicts between societies was always genocide: kill all the men, take the women and children as slaves, smash the cultural artifacts, and steal anything of value. Probably thousands of societies have been utterly erased that way. Hopefully we can arrest the gradual worldwide regression to barbarism but I'm not optimistic.