alt Hacker NewsTests (and type-checkers, linters, formal specs, etc.) ground the model in reality: they show it that it got something wrong (without needing a human in the loop). It's empiricism, "nullius in verba"; the scientific approach, which lead to remarkable advances in a few hundred years; that over a thousand years of ungrounded philosophy couldn't achieve.
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It most certainly is not. All your tests are doing is seeding the context with tokens that increase the probability of tokens related to solving the problem being selected next. One small problem: if the dataset doesn't have sufficiently well-represented answers to the specific problem, no amount of finessing the probability of token selection is going to lead to LLMs solving the problem. The scientific method is grounded in the ability to reason, not probabilistically retrieve random words that are statistically highly correlated with appearing near other words.
This only holds if you understand what's in the tests, and the tests are realistic. The moment you let the LLM write the tests without understanding them, you may as well just let it write the code directly.
This assumes that tests are realistic, which for the most part they are not.
The scientific approach is not only or primarily empiricism. We didn't test our way to understanding. The scientific approach starts with a theory that does it's best to explain some phenomenon. Then the theory is criticized by experts. Finally, if it seems to be a promising theory tests are constructed. The tests can help verify the theory but it is the theory that provides the explanation which is the important part. Once we have explanation then we have understanding which allows us to play around with the model to come up with new things, diagnose problems etc.
The scientific approach is theory driven, not test driven. Understanding (and the power that gives us) is the goal.