alt Hacker News> I've worked waterfall and while I hated it at the time I'd rather go back to it. Today we move much faster but build the wrong thing or rewrite and refactor things multiple times.
My experience as well. Waterfall is like - let's think about where we want this product to go, and the steps to get there. Agile is like ADHD addled zig zag journey to a destination cutting corners because we are rewriting a component for the third time, to get to a much worse product slightly faster. Now we can do that part 10x faster, cool.
The thing is, at every other level of the company, people are actually planning in terms of quarters/years, so the underlying product being given only enough thought for the next 2 weeks at a time is a mismatch.
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Agile largely came about because we thought about where we wanted the product to go, and the steps to get there, and started building, and then it turned out that the way we thought we wanted to go was wrong, and all of that planning we did was completely wasted.
If you work in an environment where you definitely do know where you want the product to go, and the customer doesn't change their mind once they've seen the first working bits, then great. But I've never worked in that kind of environment.
There's an abstraction level above which waterfall makes more sense, and below which [some replacement for agile but without the rituals] makes more sense.
I think the bigger issue is that Waterfall is often not "Waterfall".
Sure there's a 3000 row excel file of requirements but during development the client still sees the product or slides outlining how the product works and you still had QA that had to test stuff as you made it. Then you make changes based on that feedback.
While Agile often feels like it's lost the plot. We're just going to make something and iterate it into a product people like versus figuring out a product people will like and designing towards it.
It’s possible to manage the quarterly expectations by saying “we can improve metric X by 10% in a quarter”. It’s often possible to find an improvement that you’re very confident of making very quickly. Depending on how backwards the company is you may need to hide the fact that the 10% improvement required a one line change after a month of experimentation, or they’ll fight you on the experimentation time and expect that one line to take 5 minutes, after which you should write lots more code that adds no value.
Agile isn’t a good match for a business that can only think in terms of effort and not learning+value. That doesn’t make agile the problem.