One key reason you’re wrong is that many interesting things aren’t even getting published, they’re on the DL for years and eventually make it to public spheres and products.
Academia is just a daycare at this point, and many labs shouldn’t exists or get funding. The people who move the field aren’t necessarily the ones with the most citations, they’re usually hard at work in places that don’t publish at all.
Are you talking about just frontier LLM agent stuff or all of the scope of ICML? I wonder what your subfield is.