alt Hacker News> What you aim for if you want to invest early
Sure. I’m saying someone pursuing that portfolio will probably end up underperforming an index. Most new early-stage VCs do.
> get something between little, nothing, and loosing a little
Broadly speaking, when your investment outcomes don’t differentiate between anything and zero, you’re mostly going to get zero.
> I’m saying someone pursuing that portfolio will probably end up underperforming an index.
This holds if you consider "underperforming" to be a comparison of expected values.
On the other hand, if you consider "probability of getting a really huge payoff" to be the measure by which the investments are compared, the index fund is the one that looses in the comparison.