US intelligence had assessed that this was possible a long time ago. It was one of the motivations behind the installation of long-range missile defense capabilities in Poland and Czechia in the late 2000s. Obama killed that program to appease Russia.
Of course, there is a significant gap between Iran possessing the capability, having the temperament to use it, and actually doing so.
> It was one of the motivations behind the installation of long-range missile defense capabilities in Poland and Czechia in the late 2000s. Obama killed that program to appease Russia
This was sidestepped by allowing the Poland-SK defense partnership to kick off in 2013 [0] which was further entrenched in 2022 [1], and itself acted as a message against North Korea for acting in a similar manner with Iran [2]
[0] - https://www.president.pl/archives/bronislaw-komorowski/news/...
[1] - https://www.irsem.fr/storage/file_manager_files/2025/03/nr-i...
[2] - https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world/middleeast/29missil...