alt Hacker NewsSome of it is lack of imagination, but some of it is because many truly visionary examples would largely sound stupid to most of today's audience. Imagine it's 2007 and you're explaining how the smartphone will change society over the next 20 years:
- A photo sharing app will change restaurants, public spaces, and the entire travel industry across the world
- The smartphone will bring about regime change in Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, and other countries in ~4 years
- We'll replace taxis and hotels by getting rides and sharing homes with strangers
- Billions of people across the world will never need to own a desktop or laptop
- A short video sharing app will kill TV
- QR codes become relevant
Most of these would be a hard sell at the time.
Replies
Instagram Arabian spring Uber Airbnb Cloud-ification/shift to web apps and mobile-first ....tiktok? Or is YouTube considered "short video sharing app"? Because I see no evidence tiktok in particular killing TV... To be fair, QR code did hit print magazines/newspapers in Germany (just as an example; English wiki was not elaborating on initial history of public use/perception) in late 2007, so that one wasn't nearly as far-fetched.
None of these actually were hard to sell. In 2007 we had mobile phones, we had mp3 players (the iPod was actually very good), we had CouchSurfing, etc.
I think the smart phone revolution is actually pretty overstated. It basically only made computers cheaper and handier to carry (but also more walled gardens). There are a few capabilities of smart phones we do today which we didn’t with do with computers and mobile phones back in 2007, such as navigation (GPS were a thing but not used much by the general public).
Your case would be much stronger if you’d use the World Wide Web as your analogy, as in 1995 it would by hard to convince anybody how important it would be to maintain a web presence. And nobody would guess a social media like the irc would blow up into something other then a toy.
However I think the analogy with smartphones are actually more apt, this AI revolution has made statistical models more accessible, but we are only using them for things we were already capable of before, and unlike the web, and much like smartphones, I don’t think that will actually change. But unlike smartphones, it will always be cheaper and often even easier to use the alternatives.
- A nation-agnostic online currency (and its offshoots) would lead to a multi-polar world.
- Publicly waving your resume around will passively invite job interviews.
There's a new OpenClaw adaptation, Ottie, that I think could be a bank manager, bank teller, stockbroker, piggy bank, accountant, wallet, security guard and credit card provider all rolled into one. I just haven't used it yet. https://ottie.xyz/
So that would be:
- Digital sidekick weeds out parasitic relationships.
There has to be tremendous value in that.
When solutions are looking for problems, it means that things may seem oversold when in fact they are still undersold.