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Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?

21 pointsby bitwankyesterday at 10:33 PM15 commentsview on HN

Comments

aleccoyesterday at 11:53 PM

Eventually, yes. But 1) it's not a magic tap on/off, 2) refineries are specialized for specific types of oil, 3) a lot of ships are stuck there, 4) wells and refineries usually take a long time to restart.

Serious oil traders are saying it will take months or even more than a year to get back to normal.

The only thing containing prices at the moment is many exporters sold futures to lock-in prices for the rest of the year (it wasn't market manipulation as many suspected). But once they are sold out we'll have some interesting price discovery.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ICEEUR-BRN1!/forward-cur...

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-CL1!/forward-curve...

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fhubyesterday at 11:49 PM

For a less simplistic look at a similar question I'd recommend this article.

https://hyperfocusinhalifax.substack.com/p/why-arent-oil-pri...

wat10000yesterday at 11:35 PM

Tautologically yes. Whatever the world gets is its supply. Depending on how much can be done to bypass the Strait, that supply may diminish substantially. Already has, I suppose.

It would be nice if this was the thing that finally kicked governments into gear to get off our reliance on oil. But I don’t think 20% is quite big enough to make that happen.

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ZebusJesusyesterday at 11:55 PM

Is it possible yes, is it feasible absolutely not

atoavyesterday at 11:27 PM

*Can the world have an American President that for once doesn't start pointless wars to distract from internal scandals?

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aaron695yesterday at 11:50 PM

[dead]

verdvermyesterday at 11:25 PM

tl;dr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...

Many other things pass through the straight besides oil