I don’t believe there will ever be a real moat in terms of technology, at least not for the next year or so. The arms race between the major players still changing month to month, and they will all be able to do what their competitors were doing g three months ago.

None of them are particularly sticky - you can move between them with relative ease in vscode for instance.

I think the only moat is going to be based on capacity, but even that isnt going to last long as the products are moved away from the cloud and closer your end devices.

It matters to me. Claude code is more extensible. They put a lot of efforts to hooks and plugins. Codex may get the job done today. But Claude will evolve faster.