I think it's more of a data vs intelligence thing.

They are separate dimensions. There are problems that don't require any data, just "thinking" (many parts of math sit here), and there are others where data is the significant part (e.g. some simple causality for which we have a bunch of data).

Certain problems are in-between the two (probably a react refactor sits there). So no, tokens are probably no good proxy for complexity, data heavy problems will trivially outgrow the former category.