Game theory would be useful for these kinds of modeling.

Perhaps the government should have and advisory body that employs the smartest mathematicians for running these scenarios. Of course a lot of randomness needs to be modeled too. Wonder what would be a good name for such a body :)

Paradoxically, if anyone leaks unpalatable information from the inside that would be a problem for the government.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ellsberg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ellsberg_paradox

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAND_Corporation