We won't know if his assumption is false until time passes and moves future speculation into the empirical present.
A possibility is not a fact. Assuming a possibility will happen is not justified. Therefore it is false as an assumption, even if it is true it is a possiblity.
A possibility is not a fact. Assuming a possibility will happen is not justified. Therefore it is false as an assumption, even if it is true it is a possiblity.