The loss of ability to intercept missiles does not mean that the war is lost for America. It just means that it now has to contend with more of its own losses during the war.

America always goes to war with the handicap that 1 American life is worth hundreds of enemy lives. This handicap is why one gets the impression (illusion) that countries like Iran are able to hold their own against the great mighty USA. But if America stops playing as cautiously as it does, it turns into a very different war machine.

if a ground invasion goes they will destroy oil trade and everyone is screwed.

The war should not be won. it should be ended before everyone loses.

What does "victory" or "defeat" actually entail here? It's not as if the US risks any territory?

Trump could do something like say we destroyed your military and leadership, we win, we are going home. If you do bad stuff we'll do that again.

Not saying it's a great plan but I think Trump may be thinking that way.

Iran can block the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely. They are demanding war reparations from the United States. Since Trump won't do that, the best case scenario seems to be that one or more third parties - Europe, India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, etc. - offer(s) Iran a package of financial incentives and security assurances which convince Iran to end the war.

If only Muad'dib were here. He could find a way through.