I think even experts like Eric are now being conservative on Starship because the program is genuinely in a tough spot.

For most satellites/space stations, you need a proper payload deployment mechanism. The pez dispenser mechanism was chosen because opening the entire payload bay and closing it back up for reentry is a tough problem. For now it has been put aside to focus on the goals for Artemis, but that also means not being able to launch stuff other than Starlink.

Starship is currently still stuck in development hell, Musk is already backing off from his Mars plans, SpaceX is moving to distractions and going public (something they previously claimed would not be done).

To me, these moves do not suggest confidence in Starship's ability to live up to its advertised capabilities.