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mikewarottoday at 12:27 AM3 repliesview on HN

I think that Trump has given Iran effective tactical control over 20% of the world's energy supply. It's highly likely that they will use this to get their country back on it's economic feet, definitely get the nuclear program finished, and force the end of the PetroDollar in the process.

The appetite for the "boots on the ground" among the US public is almost zero. I doubt that even a large false flag would work at this point.

The hardest part of Trump's 2 week war is going to be the first six years.


Replies

ares623today at 12:57 AM

In a span of weeks, the "normie" world has seen just how much power Iran actually has.

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JumpCrisscrosstoday at 12:53 AM

> highly likely that they will use this to get their country back on it's economic feet, definitely get the nuclear program finished

Yes on feet. No on nuclear. Iran's economy, for the near term, is trashed. It's going to need to choose between sovereighty and wealth. If it chooses the formewr, it lacks the resources to complete the project. If it chooses the latter, it probably goes with China, which means its nuclear programme will be constrained.

> force the end of the PetroDollar in the process

Sigh. Petrodollar hypothesis hasn't been a thing for decades. Various countries price and settle oil in currencies other than dollars. Dollar demand due to oil is a vanishing fraction of total international dollar demand. Like, oil could swap to being entirely traded in Bitcoin and it might make the next Fed meeting's agenda.

pinkblinktoday at 12:28 AM

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