alt Hacker News> few energy SOEs twiddling thumbs is completely different level of exposure vs others who may have to shut down production lines
Sure. Again, I'm not saying China isn't better off than anyone else in Asia. But "few energy SOEs twiddling thumbs" is economic damage. Enough to have spooked traders and policymakers in China.
> Reminder PRC is the worlds largest oil refiner by capacity
Good point. Conceded.
> Inputs going up for EVERYONE ELSE disproportionately is better than not, because this is massive net relative advantage for PRC
Again, in Asia. Yes. Globally, they're still facing a slowdown in growth. Emerging stronger after a recession doesn't make a recession fun (or risk free).
Like, take away direct war costs and it's genuinely ambiguous how an oil shock hits the U.S. market right now. We have enough production, and enough refining with enough of a global crack spread, that the hits to consumption almost even out. Almost. Still hurts. But not as much as before. (And, granted, not as much as China has been able to mitigate downside.)
Relative/strategic win like emptying SPR might be win for US, but US being stuck in middle east quagmire spilling disproportionate treasure is bigger net win for PRC. PRC suffering 50B in refined re-export is not same as 200B floor war and high oil prices for 40% of CONUS energy mix, i.e. cut off nose to spite territory.
> doesn't make a recession fun (or risk free).
This true, but being structurally advantaged as producer in global recession does position PRC and set them up to weather or even avoid/win. Delta of PRC energy/industrial input price potentially dropped below USD tariff levels to other countries designed to divert away trade from PRC. What if global recession = disproportional trade directs back to PRC at expense of other producers and accelerates PRC gains in strategic export sectors, again at expense of everyone, especially, G7 producers, not just Asian.
PRC pivoting high quality growth = murdering real estate with 3RL shaved 2-3% of dirty growth while redirecting trillions in real industry. PRC can strategically self inflict worst growth for gamble of moving up value chain to high end, that was pain and risk. Chronic high oil = most likely pain of less global demand, but chance of increased PRC specific demand especially in sectors PRC took pain and risked to develop. It can emerge stronger DURING global recession especially with PRC also have leverage over renewables / cheap energy stack.
> hits the U.S. market
This I won't pretend to know, but on paper US has/or can coerce unlimited supply, so really matter of controlling prices which does mean arm twisting US oil majors... that seems unlikely under current admin, but it is on paper possible. Like it's mildly amusing that VZ adventure could massively stabilize US energy prices if oil remained under VZ/PDVSA control which politically enables US to coerced cheap barrels. But handing it over to Chevron = US no pays benchmark price to US companies with lobbies instead of discount price. But on paper, USD can weather crisis better than most, via political instruments / levers that Trump has power to pull but also levers Trump specifically doesn't seem likely to pull.