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pezgrandetoday at 5:17 AM4 repliesview on HN

You could argue that the only reason we have good open-weight models is because companies are trying to undermine the big dogs, and they are spending millions to make sure they dont get too far ahead. If the bubble pops then there wont be incentive to keep doing it.


Replies

aurareturntoday at 5:21 AM

I agree. I can totally see in the future that open source LLMs will turn into paying a lumpsum for the model. Many will shut down. Some will turn into closed source labs.

When VCs inevitably ask their AI labs to start making money or shut down, those free open source LLMS will cease to be free.

Chinese AI labs have to release free open source models because they distill from OpenAI and Anthropic. They will always be behind. Therefore, they can't charge the same prices as OpenAI and Anthropic. Free open source is how they can get attention and how they can stay fairly close to OpenAI and Anthropic. They have to distill because they're banned from Nvidia chips and TSMC.

Before people tell me Chinese AI labs do use Nvidia chips, there is a huge difference between using older gimped Nvidia H100 (called H20) chips or sneaking around Southeast Asia for Blackwell chips and officially being allowed to buy millions of Nvidia's latest chips to build massive gigawatt data centers.

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Liotoday at 6:32 AM

This seems to be somewhat similar to web browsers.

I could see the model becoming part of the OS.

Of course Google and Microsoft will still want you to use their models so that they can continue to spy on you.

Apple, AMD and Nvidia would sell hardware to run their own largest models.

mirekrusintoday at 6:46 AM

You can have viable business model around open weight models where you offer fine tuning at a fee.

Eufrattoday at 5:47 AM

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