alt Hacker Newsnot if your product is selling two dollars for one dollar and as soon as you'll start to charge more I'll switch to one of your twenty competitors
profit isn't a function of having a killer product, it's a function of having no competition
Replies
ds2df • yesterday at 9:46 PM
no competition is a bit extreme. Limited competition yes due to competitive advantages.
And why do you think twenty competitors can stay competitive for years to come?
Industries always consolidate and winners emerge. SOTA LLMs look like a natural monopoly or duopoly to me because the cost to train the next model keeps going up such that it won't make sense for 20 competitors to compete at the very high end.
TSMC is a perfect example of this. Fab costs double every 4 years (Rock’s Law). It's almost impossible to compete against TSMC because no one has the customer base to generate enough revenue to build the next generation of fabs - except those who are propped up by governments such as Intel and Rapidus. Samsung is basically the SK government.
I don’t see how companies can catch OpenAI or Anthropic without the strong revenue growth.