> either involves ground troops or leaving without opening the strait.

These options are not mutually exclusive.

> That is not to say Iran is winning.

They are though, the US administration has already lost it's patience, their strategic objectives (whatever they might have been have clearly not materialized), the talk about talks may very well be the administration preparing to make a bunch of concessions proclaim victory and walk away.

As it's possible for both parties to lose, a party can win all the battles and lose the war.