Yep the poster is assuming efficiencies will not come.

Absolutely they will. And this is a huge problem for OAI - given Google is targeting vertical integration, they will acquire a cost-advantage. As long as the model performance is good enough, they will kick OAI and Anthropic out in the long-run.

The valuations of OAI and Anthropic are nonsense. A true valuation would incorporate failure risk, which is natural for startups/fast growing and money losing firms. Anyone who takes them serious is incredibly delusional.