? There's really not much discussion of Iran being a problem outside the Gulf.

Iran can control the Gulf and therefore 20% of global carbons.

This is enough to put the world economy into recession.

America is not 'isolated' from the global economy.

US carbon produces don't give smack about the nation generally - they will sell to the highest bidder.

If global Oil prices skyrocket - you will pay that at the pump.

US is net carbon exporter, but there is trade - the refineries in the south are designed for heavy crude from Venezuela and Canada etc.

Yes, some national policies could alter a bit, but only in emergency, and the current Administration does not give a * about national issues, other than populist blowback. They will prefer their oil buddies by default, but with a lot of leaway for 'gas prices' causing voting problems.

US companies sell abroad, a global recession affects everything.

Just google OPEC crisis - you can see what high oil prices do, they screw everything up.

There's 100% chance of global recession if Gulf stays closed.

Given the 'leverage' in US market that can come way down. US GDP is currently held up with AI spending - if that math falters, that AI investment slows down, the US drops into recession, that causes flight from equities etc etc.

I don't think we need to speculate about anything outside of the Gulf.

It's bad, it needs to be resolved.

You see this calamity in the daily statements from WH - they are 'in out in out in out' in the same day they say 'witdhdraw' and then 'we must open the strait'.