I would not assume that he won't try to run again, nor would I assume that his party would not support it if he did. Though I do agree with the rest of what you wrote.
(2) he has to overcome an absolutely massive approval deficit
(3) he has to be able to run a credible campaign
(4) he has to get around the term limits
(5) I would expect there to be a fairly large number of people to be very upset if he did
All in all I don't think his chances for re-election are > 0. But I agree with you that he might try, by hook - or by crook - to hold on to that chair.
(1) he has to stay alive until then
(2) he has to overcome an absolutely massive approval deficit
(3) he has to be able to run a credible campaign
(4) he has to get around the term limits
(5) I would expect there to be a fairly large number of people to be very upset if he did
All in all I don't think his chances for re-election are > 0. But I agree with you that he might try, by hook - or by crook - to hold on to that chair.