Let's also imagine an alternative reality where some reasonable percentage of the $2.5T in current year AI spending was instead invested in the "general intelligence" researchers we already have for the same purpose. I think it's a pretty reasonable expectation that 1) they'd probably make more progress and 2) that money would help a lot more people in the process (through jobs and economic activity).

You can imagine all you want, but my understanding is there is no credible evidence that scaling LLMs will result in true AGI.

An already-ageing population living even longer while nobody wants kids anymore?

You don't have to imagine, it will hallucinate you a slop with full confidence every time.

Curing cancer isn't profitable. But even if someone tries to mix AI and biotech, the result will be a dangerous medical slop.