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xenadu02yesterday at 11:31 PM4 repliesview on HN

I think you have to temper the skepticism a bit though.

SpaceX has dramatically lowered the cost of launching things into space. They are still the leader here. They can put a kg into orbit cheaper than anyone, even heavily subsidized state operations (EU and China).

Their order book continues to be full. Every single launch vehicle they roll off the line was pre-sold years ago, including its re-use flights.

I agree that Elon is their biggest potential problem and a big risk but their launch business is sound and wildly successful. If you believe access to space will be a growing segment of the economy in the future it isn't exactly a bad investment.

I remember all the people putting Tesla down when they IPO'd. I bought $4k of stock (all I could afford at that time). Sold $100k of it a few years ago, still have the other half worth near $220k. Their numbers at IPO time were garbage and it wasn't clear they would even survive. Then they started shipping hundreds of thousands then a million cars.

YMMV, consider all sides and make your own judgement. Just be careful about trusting the anti-SpaceX case. Even if everyone is technically correct about them it can still be a huge miss not to invest! The future is not static and if they can put the raised capital to productive use the IPO could end up being a fantastic deal. And FWIW I also agree the largest immediate risk is they are over-valued. Only time will tell on that front.


Replies

manquertoday at 2:12 AM

As I mentioned at the end, if the pitch was just for the launch (and starlink) it would be an easy sell.

The problem is launch market is not worth 1.5+ trillion though, you need much more than just starlink and all the satellites today to justify that .

You and other early investors who had the opportunity to get in early may come of well in this and it was a good bet then.

However it is hard to see why rest of us should get in at $1.5T, the downside risks are far more than upside potential at this price .

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afavourtoday at 12:01 AM

> Their order book continues to be full.

In 2024 66% of their launches were for Starlink. So it’s not quite correct to suggest there’s a vibrant external market for their product, a lot of it is sort of self dealing.

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joyeuse6701yesterday at 11:41 PM

Not one more cent should be given to that man.

nativeittoday at 12:01 AM

I think you have to temper the glazing a bit though.

These people and their endeavors are thoroughly, irredeemably corrupt. It’s nice you got a taste, but their impact on society has been calamitous, and will take decades to recover (if at all).