> memory prices won’t remain at their current very high level indefinitely; the circumstances in which we find ourselves are challenging, but in the future they will abate.
how long does it take to increase manufacturing capacity? how long will the decision be postponed to increase manufacturing capacity? if AI skeptics are right and the bubble bursts, increasing capacity inordinately will prove a big mistake. if AI skeptics are wrong delaying increase of capacity indordinately will prove a big mistake.
In a sense we are forcing DRAM manufacturers to play the judge, jury and executioner:
If they don't increase capacity corresponding with AI boom, the DRAM prices may ultimately cause an AI winter.
If they do increase capacity (lowering per unit costs), the lower DRAM prices may enable AI summer to continue.
This looks like self-fulfilling prophecy scenario.