alt Hacker News> The SpaceX IPO in 2026 is unlikely to mirror the 500x or 1,000x returns of early Amazon or Google
I don't think this is right; when Google first IPO'd the sentiment was that they had a single successful product, search, and the stock was expected to track search. Now they have a whole suite of successful products.
Similarily SoaceX is viewed as a rocket company, but they're likely to continue to expand their product range, and for all we know some of their future products could be bigger and more profitable.
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Seems ludicrous. They're starting at half of Googles current market cap and have to 1000x.
You're saying in 20 years SpaceX being valued at ~500x current Googles is likely?
> Now they have a whole suite of successful products.
Like what? Do they have anything that actually brings in income other than advertising?
SpaceX also is Twitter(X), and Xai. So they already have several products that are loosing them money. Not sure what else they have in the pipeline other then ai data centers in space.
Sure, but that's pure speculation. The price suggests not speculation but certainty about some unspecified and massive success.
Google's price went up as they were more successful and created new products. They didn't try to extract money upfront from investors for vapor.
If they manage to bag a platinum asteroid all bets are off
Say a number.
In your opinion how much SpaceX should be valued to be overpriced?
If $1.75T is OK. Is $5T too much? I think the idea is that with over 1.5 valuation that is already taken into account (as is the narrative fallacy)