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paxystoday at 5:21 PM1 replyview on HN

Everyone is so confident in their reading of tea leaves


Replies

ddp26today at 5:27 PM

I read your comment as being glib, but in forecasting this I was really puzzled how much to anchor to how analysts tend to value these businesses.

I ended up largely deferring to them, e.g. predicting the public will value xAI at $258 billion ($222b - $310b) at time of IPO, even though I've elsewhere been skeptical that xAI should be valued like a frontier AI lab.

It's a keynesian beauty contest