alt Hacker NewsThe xAI piece is the one that stands out to me. $258B for a lab that's burning $1.46B/quarter against $430M revenue, valued almost entirely on a merger anchor from four months ago.
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As I wrote in the piece, I'm extremely skeptical that xAI should be valued as if it is a frontier lab.
But as you say, going back to the xAI + SpaceX merger, analysts consistently seem to value it as if it is, so I predict the public will too, at IPO time.
It’s absolutely ludicrous that xAI is thrown into the mix at that valuation. They’re not even a player in AI other than providing Grok slop for twitter.
Even if you think those are standard numbers and you're banking on growth, or whatever, I don't see any way anyone rational (or even a semi-rational AI bull) could convince themselves xAI isn't an absolute garbage company.
For $380B you can get both AT&T and Verizon and you pay ~1.55x the revenue. Why pay 38x for Starlink?
xAI's valuation comes from an internal transfer of Elon's. Elon has stated it's worth 258B and that's the only data point to go by.
It's absolutely bonkers and wrong but it's unlikely to raise to the level of actual misrepresentation.