If true I can’t imagine it will play well even among Trumps base. When was the last time a US fighter jet was shot down? 1999 during the intervention in the balkans?
You overestimate the base.
The war machine is already rewriting this as Iranian hostility.
The base is incapable of seeing this as a failure of their cult leader.
Instead they'll see it as the very rationale and justification of the war.
If they were ambivalent about it before, now they'll scream bloody murder for even more off-the-leash barbarism from the US and Israel.
Trump leads a personality cult not a traditional political base. There are some who have stopped supporting him because they thought he aligned with their political views but 35% or so of the US population still support him despite his 180 degree turn on two of his foundational election promises: to keep the US out of foreign wars and to bust open an international pedophile ring run for elites.
Looks like yes. Last jet shot down was a warthog in Iraq 2003. Last fighter jets shot down were a nighthawk and falcon in 1999.