I agree with this take in general, but I think we need to be prepared for nuance when thinking about these things.

Tokens are how an LLM works things out, but I think it's just as likely as not that LLMs (like people) are capable of overthinking things to the point of coming to a wrong answer when their "gut" response would have been better. I do not content that this is the default mode, but that it is both possible, and that it's more or less likely on one kind of problem than another, problem categories to be determined.

A specific example of this was the era of chat interfaces that leaned too far in the direction of web search when responding to user queries. No, claude, I don't want a recipe blogspam link or summary - just listen to your heart and tell me how to mix pancakes.

More abstractly: LLMs give the running context window a lot of credit, and will work hard to post-hoc rationalize whatever is in there, including any prior low-likelihood tokens. I expect many problematic 'hallucinations' are the result of an unlucky run of two or more low probability tokens running together, and the likelihood of that happening in a given response scales ~linearly with the length of response.