> problem is that even if the US elects some nice centrist democrats for the 14 years every country is going to be thinking "What if they elect Trump v2?"

Nobody actually does this outside opinion pages. Like, Argentina has defaulted on its debt nine times. It still finds lenders. Similarly, an America that has stabilised its foreign policy still represents a military superpower and consumer dynamo that would be hard for any rational leader to pass up aligning with.