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fatbirdtoday at 5:29 AM4 repliesview on HN

$2MM per tanker for safe passage is an extra $100 billion a year in revenue, which is peanuts next to the world's de facto acknowledgement that Iran now has sovereign control of the Strait of Hormuz and can charge whatever it wants. The ceasefire also includes lifting all sanctions on Iran, and notably says nothing about its nuclear program, which becomes de facto acceptance of its right to continue it to its logical endpoint of Iran becoming a nuclear power.

Before this started, it was impossible to imagine that Iran could achieve all this. It's hard to how this isn't a massive win for Iran.


Replies

blitzartoday at 6:27 AM

> to the world's de facto acknowledgement that Iran now has sovereign control of the Strait of Hormuz

That people thought the sovereign waters of a nation were not their sovereign waters absolutely blows my mind. Is it poor schooling, some kind of warped world view?

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roncesvallestoday at 5:38 AM

1. $2MM is their initial demand, expect it to be negotiated down.

2. There is a lot of missing details. Most ships transiting the Hormuz are Asian. Will Iran also charge China, their ally, or will they get a discount? And countries like Pakistan and India who have been neutral to slightly Iran-leaning? Can the US even "sign" such an agreement on behalf of the world? As far as non-parties to the conflict are concerned, Iran's toll is literal highway robbery.

3. "Lifting all sanctions" is again Iran's initial negotiating position. Most likely, the final agreement will keep some sanctions.

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proxtoday at 6:06 AM

Looking at the map, wouldn’t a suez canal type construction be viable somewhere on that peninsula?

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refurbtoday at 6:30 AM

Now imagine how the international community feels about the toll - “sure would be nice if Iran’s leadership was replaced so we don’t have to pay a toll for an international waterway”.

The whole situation further isolates Iran globally (they were already isolated before the war).

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