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kqryesterday at 7:45 AM2 repliesview on HN

It's not entirely crazy. I believe Thorp described this about roulette wheels. If they had no imperfection at all, it would be computationally laborious but not unthinkable to compute the result from the initial positions and velocities. In order to be unpredictable, roulette wheels need to have imperfections. Those very same imperfections, of course, lead to some statistical regularities.

Edit: It wasn't quite that, but very nearly: start reading paragraph 5 in http://www.edwardothorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Physi...

In the next article in the series, he explains that in practice, roulette wheels are often tilted and that can be used to gain a further advantage: http://www.edwardothorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Physi...


Replies

xyzzy_plughyesterday at 1:26 PM

Anecdotally I was on a streak and the dealer was actively concentrating and focusing to get my number again. She managed to get it 4 out of 5 spins. Now she would obviously never admit to this, but I'm positive that she was able to, on this specific wheel, land on the number she wanted.

I think we would've kept going but she rotated off and I cashed out.

Edit: Thorp and Shannon! What a duo. Great articles, thanks for sharing.

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blitzaryesterday at 9:53 AM

If you are the house you probably want to go around every so often and give the wheel a little bump to reset the entropy seed for the day.