That’s not how any of this works. There are separate teams within (each division of) Microsoft that could easily pull the plug on your account (or if not the entire account then your account’s access to the specific service or family of services) for any of a myriad purported reasons or alleged ToS violations.

No one is calling an executive meeting to discuss banning an OSS dev’s account.

I have a hard time believing this to be true when for a while now it's always been some automated system that goes completely unchecked and unmonitored. It's not until someone who is wrongfully affected complains on Xitter does anyone notice.

What are you basing your remark here on?