Technically you're correct that change frequency doesn't necessarily mean dead, but the number of projects that are receiving very few updates because they're 'done' is a fraction of a fraction of a percent compared to the number that are just plain dead. I'm certain you can use change frequency as a proxy and never be wrong.
> I'm certain you can use change frequency as a proxy and never be wrong.
I (largely) wrote a corporate application 8 years ago, with 2 others. There was one change 2 years ago from another dev.
Lots of programs are functionally done in a relatively short amount of time.
"Accelerating or Dying" sounds like private equity's lazy way to describe opportunity, not as a metric to describe software.