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kadobanyesterday at 7:16 PM1 replyview on HN

> This is fun ok so tell me specifically which sanctions were lifted and who lifted them and when. Please provide a source. I'm excited to see what you have to say here. This really illustrates the different worlds we all live in. Ok cool - please let me know when you find out.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno

> Well that's the Iranian logic, not my logic or American logic. They believe they own the Straight. Fine then we'll just take it over instead if they believe someone gets to own it, well, we have the bigger guns so we'll own it.

It's the world's logic. If you live there, you own it.

What does the US taking over the strait look like? It's multiple aircraft carriers, and a _large_ boots-on-the-ground invasion of the shore, and even then it's _still_ a mess. And yes, that is physically possible. It's just not politically possible, and it would be forever. The US could never leave.

> No we can just build cheap drones and missiles and we're working on doing so.

Yeah, we're "working on doing so", Iran is _using them_. We're behind in wars of this type. The US is all set to run World War II again. Plus, that would work if Iran was in say the middle of Lake Erie. Where Iran actually exists, we're going to deploy them from where? Aircraft carriers? They're not set up for that, and if they get close enough they'll take on potshots they can't protect against until they have to move back.

Iran has a whole country they control to send potshots from. Unless the US is willing to firebomb the entire country, or invade in force, the US is not winning this war. Neither of those are going to be acceptable politically.

> Doesn't make sense at all. First we can blow up any physical structure in Iran. So where will they make these weapons? Well we'll find wherever they try to make the weapons and boom! Gone in an instant.

Then why is Iran still able to shoot down our fancy jets? Their offensive capability should be already gone right? What are we waiting for?

> The US forced Iran into a ceasefire - remember the US demanded it, not Iran, under threat of massive bombardment, and then Iran capitulated. At least for a short while, rumors are they already broke it because their soldiers in Lebanon (Hezbollah - wait why is Iran funding groups in Lebanon?) continue to strike at Israel so they continue to get bombed.

Did they capitulate or did they break it already? Seems kind of like having it both ways.

I'm sure it will get litigated and argued about to hell, but Israel is bad at ceasefires. Their version of a ceasefire is the kind where they still get to blow up whatever they feel like. Doesn't seem like Israel is too invested in this ceasefire anyway, so it makes sense.

And hey, let's look at the ceasefire. If you have another source, happy to take a look but here's one to start with: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-de...

In this article, this is reported to be Iran's ask, which Trump calls “workable basis on which to negotiate”:

- Fundamental commitment to non-aggression from the US. - Controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Iranian armed forces, which would mean that Iran retains its leverage over the waterway. - An acceptance of Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme. - The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions and resolutions against Iran. - End of all resolutions against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency. - End of all resolutions against Iran by the United Nations Security Council. - The withdrawal of US combat forces from all bases in the region. - Full compensation for damages suffered by Iran during the war – to be secured through payments to Iran by ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. - The release of all Iranian assets and properties frozen abroad. - The ratification of all these matters in a binding UNSC resolution.

If they get basically any of that it's a win for Iran. What did the regime of Iran lose? They lost some leaders, that's bad but it doesn't exactly weaken the regime itself if we just change who's on top. They lost a lot of stuff, but they gained ways to build 100x as much back.

The people of Iran lost a good amount. They're in a worse position even if you ignore all of the dead ones. Does the regime care? No, the Iranian regime fucking sucks, they're assholes. And the US helped them out by going into a war with no strategy and no achievable objectives.


Replies

ericmayyesterday at 8:23 PM

> https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno

This isn't a lifting of sanctions in the manner you meant or was being discussed. If anything it's the opposite! The US said we'll let you sell oil to keep prices down so your closure of the Straight has less impact while we bomb you.

> Where Iran actually exists, we're going to deploy them from where? Aircraft carriers? They're not set up for that, and if they get close enough they'll take on potshots they can't protect against until they have to move back.

We can launch missiles from aircraft, we can deploy teams to deploy drones, there's a lot of options here. We don't really need to deploy drones so much as we need just cheaper missiles to launch at drones or for air defense. Both are pretty reasonable for the US to accomplish so I'm not sure what you think is the limiting factor here. Use your imagination.

> Then why is Iran still able to shoot down our fancy jets? Their offensive capability should be already gone right? What are we waiting for?

A guy with a ground to air missile can just run around in the mountains and get lucky once in a while. Not sure how this is a rebuttal to what I wrote. Or are you under the delusion that you can attack a country and never suffer any equipment losses? Many people seem to not know too much about how war works and have set these bizarre expectations. The fact that we've only lost what we have so far while obliterating anything we can find really tells you how ineffective their military is and was made to be.

> Did they capitulate or did they break it already? Seems kind of like having it both ways.

Well initially they capitulated, but yea idk maybe they are breaking the agreement. Guess we'll have to do the 8PM plan then if they are breaking the ceasefire. It's TBD as we get realtime updates. Plus the IRGC doesn't really have complete control over various military units. Remember them launching missiles for no reason at Azerbaijan?

> In this article, this is reported to be Iran's ask, which Trump calls “workable basis on which to negotiate”:

Have you negotiated anything between hostile parties before? You say things like this to just get to the table. Did you forget the US proposal? Why aren't you touting those bullet points and talking about how Iran agreed to them and now they're capitulating and going to the negotiating table?

> If they get basically any of that it's a win for Iran. What did the regime of Iran lose? They lost some leaders, that's bad but it doesn't exactly weaken the regime itself if we just change who's on top. They lost a lot of stuff, but they gained ways to build 100x as much back.

Well to date they lost a lot of military equipment that they can't get back - we would bomb it again too. They've lost any progress toward nuclear weapons unless helped by other adversaries like China, Russia, or North Korea, and they've had their leadership destroyed.

Like, in what world does a comment like this even make sense? "They lost a lot of stuff, but they gained ways to build 100x as much back."

How did they gain a way to build 100x what they lost when they have no ability to build anything at scale that we don't allow? If they build a factory we just blow it up.

> The people of Iran lost a good amount. They're in a worse position even if you ignore all of the dead ones. Does the regime care? No, the Iranian regime fucking sucks, they're assholes. And the US helped them out by going into a war with no strategy and no achievable objectives.

The strategy and objective was to bomb them and stop them from building so many missiles that we wouldn't actually be able to do anything about them doing whatever crazy shit they want to do. If nothing else, it was all worth it just to kill the Ayatollah. Some things are worth more than the money spent. You're right the Iranian people lose, but we're just not going to let this government get more missiles, keep supplying Russia with drones, and build nuclear weapons. It. Will. Not. Happen. There's no question about this.

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