> it's also highly relevant

Polymarket has $5 million of wagers on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?"

The toll Iran charges for safe passage is $2 million per ship, and at current prices such a ship would be carrying about $200 million of oil. Oh, and we live in a world where a single billionaire will happily spend $200 million to influence politics.

The polymarket number merely shows that nobody's paid to make it higher or lower yet.