He just had to pick a year where he would have a very good chance of not being alive.
No, he started predicting in his 2005 book, based on the “Law of Accelerating Returns”, yielding exponential growth in computing capacity.
Timeline from here on out:
2029: AI passes a valid Turing test and achieves human-level intelligence
2030s: Technology goes inside your brain to augment memory; humans connect their neocortex to the cloud
2045: The Singularity, when human intelligence multiplies a billion-fold by merging with AI
alt Hacker News
No, he started predicting in his 2005 book, based on the “Law of Accelerating Returns”, yielding exponential growth in computing capacity.
Timeline from here on out:
2029: AI passes a valid Turing test and achieves human-level intelligence
2030s: Technology goes inside your brain to augment memory; humans connect their neocortex to the cloud
2045: The Singularity, when human intelligence multiplies a billion-fold by merging with AI